← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
decks
7
(18.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
16-17-5
overall winrate
48.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1314
· median 1346
· range 1121–1513
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1184
Q3 1430
1584
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.9% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 73.1% | +14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 36.1% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -5.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.5% | +13.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
